Insights
Bonds: events that moved it
Government and investment-grade corporate credit. This page gathers the pieces in our Insights archive that touched bonds: what happened, what it meant for this kind of investment, and where to read the original reporting.
Market-history pieces are retrospectives, dated by the event. They are general information, not advice, and not a record of any RockLake position at the time.
Market history · 53
Central banks ·
The Fed turns: from a cutting debate to a rate rise
In 2026 the Federal Reserve moved from dissents in favour of cuts to a unanimous quarter-point increase.
Bonds ·
Long yields climb to 2007 highs as gold rallies
A hawkish Fed chair, rising yields in the US, Europe and Japan, and a surge in gold marked August 2026.
Currencies ·
The US and Japan step in to support the yen
After the yen fell to its weakest since 1986, both governments bought yen in a joint intervention.
Central banks ·
The Fed cuts for a third time, with three dissents
By December 2025 the policy rate was down to 3.50–3.75%, and the Committee was split three ways.
Private credit ·
Tricolor and First Brands: two failures that unsettled private credit
A subprime auto lender and an auto-parts supplier collapsed within weeks, raising questions about hidden debt and double-pledged collateral.
Sovereign credit ·
Moody's strips the US of its last top credit rating
The third of the big three agencies moved the US from Aaa to Aa1.
Trade ·
The 90-day tariff pause and the biggest one-day rally since 2008
A week after Liberation Day, a pause on most reciprocal tariffs sent US shares sharply higher.
Trade ·
Liberation Day: a tariff shock reprices global markets
Sweeping US tariff announcements triggered one of the sharpest sell-offs since 2020.
Fiscal policy ·
Germany loosens its debt brake
A historic fiscal package for defence and infrastructure marked a turn in Europe's biggest economy.
Central banks ·
The Fed cuts again, and markets fall
A third cut to 4.25–4.50% came with a more cautious outlook for 2025.
Central banks ·
The Fed begins cutting with a half-point move
The first reduction since 2020 took the target range to 4.75–5.00%.
Markets ·
The yen carry-trade unwind
A Bank of Japan rate rise and weak US data triggered Japan's worst day since 1987.
Central banks ·
The ECB makes its first rate cut since 2019
Europe moved ahead of the Fed, trimming its deposit rate from a record 4% to 3.75%.
Central banks ·
Japan ends negative interest rates
The Bank of Japan raised rates for the first time in 17 years after the Nikkei topped its 1989 peak.
Real estate ·
New York Community Bancorp falls 37% on property losses
A regional lender with large commercial property exposure posted a loss and cut its dividend.
Credit ·
A Hong Kong court orders Evergrande to be wound up
Two and a half years after its first missed payment, the world's most indebted developer was ordered to liquidate.
Real estate ·
US mortgage rates reach a twenty-year high
The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.09%, the highest in over two decades, squeezing housing activity.
Credit ·
Country Garden misses dollar bond payments
China's property trouble spread beyond Evergrande to a developer that had been seen as one of the stronger ones.
Sovereign credit ·
Fitch downgrades the US; Treasury yields reach 5%
A ratings cut and heavy issuance pushed the 10-year yield to its highest since 2007.
Central banks ·
The Fed's last rate rise takes rates to a 22-year high
A quarter-point increase brought the target range to 5.25–5.50%.
Banking ·
Credit Suisse is sold to UBS
A weekend rescue wrote down CHF 16 billion of AT1 bonds and shocked bondholders.
Banking ·
Silicon Valley Bank fails
A $42 billion single-day deposit run brought down the 16th-largest US bank.
Portfolios ·
2022: when stocks and bonds fell together
The classic 60/40 portfolio had one of its worst years in decades.
Bonds ·
The UK mini-budget and the gilt crisis
Unfunded tax cuts sent gilt yields soaring and forced the Bank of England to intervene.
Central banks ·
The ECB raises rates by half a point and ends negative rates
Its first rise in eleven years was twice the size it had signalled.
Inflation ·
US inflation reaches 9.1%, a 40-year high
Consumer prices rose 9.1% in the year to June 2022, the fastest since 1981.
Currencies ·
The euro falls to parity with the dollar
For the first time in twenty years one euro bought one dollar or less.
Central banks ·
The Fed's 75 basis-point hike
The largest single rate rise since 1994 in a year that took rates from near zero to 4.5%.
Sovereign credit ·
Sri Lanka defaults on its foreign debt
The country's first sovereign default followed a collapse in reserves, fuel shortages and months of unrest.
Central banks ·
The Fed starts its fastest tightening in decades
A quarter-point rise to 0.25–0.50% began a campaign that took rates above 4% within the year.
Central banks ·
The Bank of England raises rates first
A surprise rise to 0.25% made it the first major central bank to tighten after the pandemic.
Inflation ·
Inflation stops being "transitory"
Consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in about four decades and the Fed changed course.
Central banks ·
The Fed begins to taper its bond purchases
The Fed began reducing its monthly asset purchases while holding rates at zero.
Credit ·
Evergrande and China's property reckoning
The world's most indebted developer missed payments and set off a sector-wide crisis.
Private credit ·
Greensill Capital collapses
A supply-chain finance firm that had sought a $7 billion valuation filed for insolvency after Credit Suisse froze about $10 billion of funds.
Commodities ·
Gold rises above $2,000 an ounce for the first time
Falling real yields, a weaker dollar and pandemic stimulus drove a record.
Sovereign credit ·
Argentina defaults again, then restructures $65 billion
A ninth default was followed by a deal with bondholders in August.
Policy ·
The $2.2 trillion CARES Act is signed
The largest US fiscal rescue in history helped stop the fall in markets.
Equities ·
The fastest bear market in history
The S&P 500 fell about a third in five weeks as the pandemic shut down economies.
Central banks ·
The Fed goes back to zero
An emergency weekend meeting cut rates to near zero and restarted quantitative easing.
Central banks ·
The Fed's half-point cut before its scheduled meeting
The Fed cut by half a point on 3 March 2020, weeks before it was due to meet.
Bonds ·
The world's negative-yielding debt pile
More than $15 trillion of bonds traded at yields below zero.
Bonds ·
The yield curve inverts
The 2-year yield rose above the 10-year for the first time since 2007.
Central banks ·
The Fed pivots: the first cut since 2008
After hiking through 2018, the Fed cut three times in 2019 as growth slowed.
Central banks ·
The Fed raises rates for the fourth time in 2018
A rise to 2.25–2.50% came in the middle of a market sell-off.
Emerging markets ·
The Turkish lira crisis
A currency collapse exposed the risks of foreign-currency debt.
Central banks ·
Central banks begin to unwind QE
The Fed announced balance-sheet reduction and the ECB began to halve its purchases.
Markets ·
The reflation trade
Bond yields jumped, banks and cyclicals rallied and the Fed raised rates for the second time.
Currencies ·
Brexit: the UK votes to leave the EU
A 52–48 result surprised markets and sent sterling to a 30-year low.
Central banks ·
The Fed's first rate rise since 2006
After seven years at zero, US rates rose to 0.25–0.50%.
Sovereign credit ·
Greece votes 'no'
Voters rejected creditors' terms; banks were shut and capital controls imposed.
Central banks ·
The ECB launches quantitative easing
Combined purchases of €60 billion a month, including government bonds, began in March 2015.
Currencies ·
The Swiss franc shock
The SNB scrapped its euro cap without warning and the franc surged as much as 29%.
Explainers · 9
Fixed income
Duration: the number that decides how much rates hurt
A short guide to why some bonds fall further than others.
Portfolio construction
Diversification only works if the pieces behave differently
Why owning many things is not the same as being diversified.
Inflation
Real returns: what your money buys, not what it says
Why a return only means something after inflation, and what that changes.
Currencies
Currency risk: the second return inside every foreign investment
How exchange rates add to, or subtract from, what you earn abroad.
Credit
What a credit rating tells you, and what it does not
A short guide to ratings for bonds, loans and governments.
Central banks
How interest-rate cycles move different assets
Why a change in central bank policy rarely affects every holding the same way.
Bonds
What happens when a government cannot pay
A sovereign default is resolved by negotiation, not by a court, and it can take years.
Investor education
Event risk: what a market-history archive can and cannot teach
Events differ every time, but the ways portfolios are hurt are fewer and repeat.
Investor education
How to use our market-history archive
Browse by year, by series or by the asset class an event affected, and follow each source to the original.
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